Value Betting Baseball

#1

Hey all. I’m a forum lurker but wanted to get some thoughts. Throughout the fall and winter I was very consistent and growing my bank roll by tailing some really good guys with college basketball primarily. Now that we are in the spring the same knowledge for that sport doesn’t seem to exist as much with baseball. Baseball is my personal favorite sport. I have never at all considered myself a handicapper of any sort but I have limited resources as far as Who to tail this time of year.

The last few days I have been looking at pitching matchup‘s and situations without looking at the money line. When I spot value regardless of how bad a team is I would be backing it seems to of been winning so far. For example, I had the Mariners as a huge dog against Carlos Carrasco yesterday. For no reason other than the Indians were just laying way too large of a number. The picks I made today are currently winning as well. I guess what I am wondering is, as much as baseball is an analytics game and I love sabermetrics, is there something to purely looking at values? Even taking the Marlins against Kershaw if you are getting 3 to 1. It just makes sense to do so.

Would like to hear thoughts on this. Thanks

#2

DOOMED

unlike sports with point spreads you have to decide the best betting option 1st

then match it against the line to see if there is value in betting a game you already like.

value to me is the rams -2.5 vs the lions when i think the line should be over 3

now if you like the lions there is zero value at 2.5

but great value at plus 4.5

BASEBALL

FIND THE WINNER 1ST
FIND THE TOTAL U LIKE OVER 8…and if its 7.5 u drop the hammer

if its 8.5 or 9…move on

best value in baseball is a 50/50 coin flip
proposition that you can get +120 or +130

if you do that you will never lose money

#3

Thanks Facts. You nailed exactly the idea I am talking about. I go up and down the baseball card and make my own money lines before I look at the actual line. I have counted 1 to 3 a day that are about 20 to 30 points off. Really appreciate the feedback

#4

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#5

The season started again and it is really great that we can watch it again.

#6

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