Tampa Winter 2018/Spring 2019


#1

Began following this circuit last year. Was able to scratch out a small profit focusing on small, under the radar barns with high ROI in certain situations. The idea was to catch a few of these small time trainers on hot runs, at big prices. I’ll give it another go this year.

Saturday 11/24/18

Race 9
$20 WIN # 7 Mauras Forever 30-1
$2 ExBx 3-7
.50c tri 3,7/ALL/3,7
$2 DD 3,7/10,12

Tough call here as Aldana Gonzalez and Gerard Ochoa both have entrants, and I followed them all of last meet. Ultimately decided on Ochoa, as he has a crazy overall ROI here even after a down-ish meet last year. Plus he had a $52 winner the other day at Gulf, so hoping the barn is starting to roll.
This one has been running unsuccessfully vs better at Gulf. May fit better at Tampa.

Race 10
$20 win #12 Hechicera 30-1
$2 ExBx 10-12
.50c tri 10,12/ALL/10,12

Ochoa with two in here, so gotta side with the ultra bomb. His chalk seems to lose here, while the bombers pump up the ROI.

RISKING $67. Good luck, men!


#2

Horses sucked and I added wrong.

0-2, -$74


#3

Wed 11/28/18

Playing one today:

Race 7
$20 WIN #5 Gran Nenuco 10-1
$2 exbx 3-5
.50c tri 3,5/ALL/3,5
$1 P3 3,5/ALL/3

Looking to catch Ochoa at some good prices this meet after last year’s lukewarm effort. Go back to the previous two years, and the ROI is off the charts. This one has a win over the course this year and picks up the best rider down there, in my opinion. 4 month layoff is a concern, but it won last out off a 2 monther. Should enhance the price.

Risking $54. Good luck to anyone in action today.

Record: 0-2, -$74


#4

Scratcheroo. Pass.


#5

Fri 11/30/18
Nice card today. Playing a four bagger.

Race 2
$20 win #1 Amberjack 5-1
$2 Ex 1/All
$1 P3 1/ALL/4

Trainer Ali threw out a 2-25 clunker last meet. But the previous two years were great, ROI wise. So maybe he comes out firing this year? His main angle during his good years was second and third start of meet, so consider this a test case for his early starters.

Race 5
$20 win #1 We’ll Composed 12-1
$2 exbx 1-8
.50c tri 1,8/ALL/1,8

Trainer Raymond has solid ROI in multiple categories and came out firing Wednesday with a 13-1 winner. Last year he won a handful early on, then kind of disappeared. I’ll try and ride the early wave again.

Race 8
$20 win #6 Dim Sum 30-1
$1 exbx 6/ALL
$1 P3 6/6,7/1,14

Gonzalez another one with great ROI last three years in multiple categories. She was decent last year but didn’t detonate any major bombs, so I’m on alert.

Race 10
$20 win #1 Over to You 8-1
$2 exbx 1-14
.50c tri 1,14/ALL/1,14

Lerman fading into oblivion, but I’m holding out hope he returns to his sneaky ways. Not sure we’ll get 8-1 here, but maybe the bettors toss him due to some recent low production. Not sure the 14 draws in, but if Lerman scratches for some reason I’ll be looking to bet that bomb.

Risking $163. Good luck men!

0-2, -$74


#6

Lost $65 after scratches and the cheap triple. More tomorrow…

0-6, -$139


#7

Sat 12/1/18
Another four bagger today. Meet is gonna get expensive quickly if one of these skunks don’t heat up…

Race 1
$20 win #3 Babie Monster 9/2
$2 Ex 3/ALL
$1 P3 1,3/ALL/8
Arboritanza has some crazy ROI here. Last year’s ROI was down from previous two, but he’s still one to follow. His second and third timers over the course are his bread and butter so consider this a test to see if he’s coming out firing.

Race 5
$20 win #2 Laur Net 30-1
$1 exbx 2/ALL
Mentioned Aldana Gonzalez yesterday. Nice ROI in multiple categories but failed to put over a big one last meet, still on alert.

Race 7
$20 win #2 And Won 6-1
$2 exbx 2-10
.50c tri 2,10/ALL/2,10
$1 P3 2/ALL/6
Granitz came out firing to start last year’s meet. Hoping for more of the same. Solid ROI in multiple scenarios.

Race 9
$20 win #6 Red Curls 8-1
$2 Ex 6/ALL
Stick with Lerman again. Had a 9-1 run second yesterday to a monster. Today picks up the top jock. Don’t see that too often from this outfit.

Risking $174. Good luck!

0-6, -$139


#8

Blanked.

0-10, -$301


#9

Wed 12/5/18

R2
$20 win#2 Go to Win 9/2
$2 Ex 2/ALL
Gonna go down swinging with Aldana Gonzalez. I think Spieth sucks, but most of her bombs here the last three years have come with him aboard.

R5
$20 win #10 Mighty Ghost 12/1
$2 Ex 10/ALL
Ali’s horse ran good enough the other day to keep me interested, especially at this price. If it fails, we come out firing second and third start over the course.

R8
$20 win #4 Happy Princess 15/1
$2 Exbx 4/1,3
Gonna guess wrong here with 2 Ochoa’s and one Raymond, but have to stick with Ochoa’s long ones and hope he returns to his bombing ways from two and three years ago…

Good luck, fuckers.

0-10, -$301


#10

Knocked $18 off the figure. The bombs ain’t falling yet. Ali goes on the back burner until his “second time overs” come around. Speith still sucks even though he won the second. He cut off the second place finisher unnecessarily, was lucky to get away with it. Take Em Wide Willie Martinez didn’t have horse in the fifth, but his ride certainly didn’t help. Guy seems deathly afraid of being anywhere but the outside. See you Friday.

1-13, -$283


#11

Fri 12/7/18

Played two races today, centering on Arboritanza. ROI remains crazy over last three years.

Race 5
$20 win #3 King Tide 10-1
$2 exbx 3/1,7
$2 DD 1,3,7/5

Race 6
$20 win #5 Indy’s Quick Image 15-1
$2 Ex 5/ALL

GL!

1-13,-$283


#12

Sat 12/8/18

Blanked again yesterday…

Race 3
$20 win #7 Snuggly Bear 12-1
$2 exbx 4-7
.50c tri 4,7/ALL/4,7
Gonna stick with these good ROI trainers like Aldana Gonzalez until they’re in the negative.

Race 10
$20 win #6 Extra Salsa 5-1
$2 Ex 6/ALL

Downing doesn’t start many but has fantastic ROI last three years here in turf routes.

If this fails, GO ARMY

1-15, -$347


#13

Lost the tenth by a head. Wasn’t a life changer though.

1-17, -$415


#14

Wed 12/12/18
Playing two races today, maybe three depending on scratches:

Race 3
$20 win #6 Lloydly 6-1
$2 Exbx 6-9
$1 P3 6/ALL/3,10

Downing has great ROI in turf routes and just missed by a head in that mode last week. Will stick with her.

Race 5
$20 win #3 Beautiful Reminder 6-1
$2 exbx 3-10
.50c tri 3,10/ALL/3,10

Aldana Gonzalez has been the most active of this group that I’m following. Only one small priced W to speak of so far, so hopefully the bombs are ahead for her. Stuck with Spieth again, but as noted earlier, he’s her go to guy for some reason.

Might be back for race 9 depending on if Gonzalez’ entrant stays in.

1-17, -$415


#15

Added

Race 9
$20 win #11 Go to Win 12-1

Won here last week for Aldana Gonzalez but didn’t look so sharp once it made the lead. Maybe a bit sharper today off the quick wheelback?


#16

The 10 in race 5 scratched, wiping out a few bets. Now the 11 scratched in race 9. One last addition:

Race 3
$1 P3 9/ALL/3


#17

Both horses got hammered, neither ran a lick.

1-19, -$477


#18

Wed 12/19/18

Race 2
$20 win #3 Sister Drama 15-1
$2 Ex 3/ALL
$1 P3 3/ALL/3

This one checks all the boxes for Arboritanza. He has great ROI with distance turn backs, with second starts of meet, and with quick wheelbacks. Plus he’s using Uske this meet so far, and I’ve been a fan since H. Allen Jerkens used her.

Race 4
$20 win #3 Fast Point 4-1
$1 P3 3/ALL/1

Usually don’t like playing Ochoa at such low odds, but this one has three things about it I like. Quick wheelback, huge jock upgrade to Camacho Jr, and it’s been a money burner. I like following the money burners because they usually pop at better prices when everyone else gives up.

I’ll be back for the sixth…


#19

Arboritanza horse walks out of the gate, closes for third at 18-1. Frustrating. Rest of my plays:

Race 6
$20 win #1 My Computer 30-1
$2 DD 1/2
$1 P3 1/2/All
$1 P3 1/ALL/9
I’m playing all Ochoa’s long ones this meet

Race 8
$20 win #9 My Bariley 6-1
$1 P3 9/ALL/8,9
Nice back class and Granitz has one double digit winner already this meet. Great ROI for an under the radar guy.

Race 10
$20 win #8 Mancora 30-1
$2 ExBx 8/2,9

Ochoa bomb again. Guy owes me.


#20

One winner @$15.80. Not enough to stop the bleeding.

2-24, -$494