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Old 04-18-2018, 03:10 PM   #1
peteypab89
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Default Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

Just wanted to leave you guys with something I've been using a little over a year. When 3 game series start up, typically on Monday & Friday, I look at what home teams are better or equal to their road opponent. Then I wait to see which of those home teams lose the first 2 games of the series. I then bet them to win (or cover +1.5 if their SP sucks) the 3rd game of the series. The theory is it's hard to beat a good or even average team 3 times in a row in their own stadium. I haven't recorded any win percentages, but I feel it's been pretty successful. I have the Pirates right now (knock on wood).

Tonight, the Mets try to avoid the sweep at home. I got +1.5 at a decent price last night, but they're close to even money right now to win straight up. This one could be dangerous since the Mets swept the Nats in their home stadium & Washington could be focused on revenge. I still like the Mets' chances, though. Your call & gl this year
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Old 04-18-2018, 03:15 PM   #2
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Default Re: Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

just wanted to add that it might sometimes be a good idea to lay off that system if the road team is on a win streak over 5-6 games
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Old 04-18-2018, 07:43 PM   #3
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Default Re: Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

Good info....Thanks Petey





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Old 04-18-2018, 08:44 PM   #4
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Default Re: Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

petey

the system is a losing proposition

your wagering on a team who is losing
vs a team that is winning.

1ST RULE IN BASEBALL

there is no such thing as due to win
never bet against a streak even as little as 2

winning and losing is contagious in baseball

just trying to save you some $$$$
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Old 04-19-2018, 01:57 PM   #5
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Default Re: Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

NYM pull off the comeback

taking LAA +1.5 at -165 for a parlay padder, ML is -110 for anyone interested (was -103 last night)


FYI there's been a few wins in row for this system, so bet small. the law of averages evens things out eventually.


here are some stats regarding home teams losing the 1st game of a series (couldn't find stats for losing first 2 games). numbers look pretty good

https://www.teamrankings.com/blog/ml...me-of-a-series

Last edited by peteypab89; 04-19-2018 at 02:00 PM.
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Old 04-25-2018, 12:18 PM   #6
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Default Re: Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

going with HOU -200/LAD -340 parlay for a hair less than even money. astros are the good home team trying to avoid the sweep (verlander vs. tropeano, i like Houston's chances). since it's heavy juice & i don't like chasing -1.5, especially on a home team, i figured i'd add a kershaw home game. it's also following a loss to what might be the worst team in baseball, i gotta think the dodgers will take care of business
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Old 04-25-2018, 03:55 PM   #7
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Default Re: Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

I concur... hope we're right!
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Old 04-29-2018, 12:27 PM   #8
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Default Re: Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

LAA -110, WAS -120

parlay padders: BOS -210, TOR -235
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Old 05-02-2018, 10:39 AM   #9
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Default Re: Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

MIN -103 (+1.5 is at -165 fyi)
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Old 05-02-2018, 08:31 PM   #10
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Default Re: Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

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Old 05-02-2018, 10:43 PM   #11
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Default Re: Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

Great win. Very hard to sweep a decent team at home.
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Old 05-06-2018, 01:31 PM   #12
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Default Re: Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

ATL -138
NYM -195 (-1.5 at +120, -0.5 1st 5 inn. at -130)
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Old 05-09-2018, 01:24 PM   #13
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Default Re: Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

DET -128 (at -176 now. sorry, i should've posted this morning)
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Old 05-13-2018, 02:37 AM   #14
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Default Re: Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

LAD -147
LAA -163
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Old 05-16-2018, 11:47 AM   #15
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Default Re: Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

Parlay padder: BOS -255 (-1.5 at -125, -0.5 1st 5 inn at -160)

Optional pick: KC +101 The Royals are not a very good team, but I'm putting a small amount on them since I don't see Tampa as a power house & I think KC can get a couple runs up on Faria. Your choice, GL today
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