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Old 10-11-2017, 01:38 PM   #1
celticchamps
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thumb Game 4 - Nationals @ Cubs

Runs have been hard to come by so far in this series. Outside of a 5 run (2 home runs) 8th inning for the Nats in game 2. There have only been a combined 10 runs scored in the other 26 innings of play. Chilly, windy day at Wrigley today with a 20 mph wind blowing in from the northeast which means basically straight in from center field. Looks like an under, letís look at the pitching matchup:

Jake Arrieta has decent, not great numbers against the Nats. .239 average against. The biggest thing I see is he keeps Murphy, Harper, and Zimmerman from getting extra base hits. 52 combined at bats between them and they have just 3 xbhs. In total heís only given up 8 xbhs to the Nats lineup in 134 at bats good for just a .328 slugging percentage. Before the hamstring injury early in September, Arrieta rolled through July and August. He calls the hamstring a non issue now, and I think he pitches well today.

Roark on the other side pretty good numbers against the Cubs. Rizzo, Hayward, Zobrist, and Russell are a combined 5 for 47 off him. Roark went 6 1/3 innings giving up 5 hits and 2 runs at Wrigley earlier in the year in his one 2017 start against the Cubs.

Both teams depend fairly heavily on the long ball for runs. The combination of the colder weather with a nice breeze blowing straight in and the pitching matchup leads me to UNDER 7.5
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Old 10-11-2017, 01:42 PM   #2
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Default Re: Game 4 - Nationals @ Cubs

One more point to the under I forgot to mention. The home team is a substantial favorite in the game = good potential for only 8.5 innings. A small thing but definitely worth noting
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Old 10-11-2017, 01:54 PM   #3
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Default Re: Game 4 - Nationals @ Cubs

Great analysis CC. While 7.5 is a low number, I think you hit it on the head. I see this game as 3-1 or 2-1 with the Cubs on top.
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Old 10-11-2017, 01:58 PM   #4
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Default Re: Game 4 - Nationals @ Cubs

Thanks Gípa. Unfortunately just noticed Strasburg is indeed starting, total down to 7 with -125 juice on the under.
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Old 10-11-2017, 02:06 PM   #5
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Default Re: Game 4 - Nationals @ Cubs

Unbelievable! This morning sports radio was all over him for being a wimp and electing not to pitch because he had the sniffles! Apparently it worked.

I agree with you, the current line is too tight. It's a pass for me. Nonetheless, your analysis still holds. It should be a low scoring game.
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Old 10-11-2017, 02:20 PM   #6
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Default Re: Game 4 - Nationals @ Cubs

I had a gut feeling he was going to start... They prolly knew it as well... But kept it as tanner was the starter just in case .. But there is no way Strasburg was missing.... A cold could clear out and make you feel better within 24 hrs.... And I bet he gained his strength back.. Because.. Let's be honest.... He wouldn't be effective throwing fast balls with a cold..... Dummy ESPN reporters are a bunch of idiots.
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Old 10-11-2017, 10:03 PM   #7
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Default Re: Game 4 - Nationals @ Cubs

You made a great play
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Old 10-11-2017, 10:43 PM   #8
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Default Re: Game 4 - Nationals @ Cubs

Great Job!!!
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